by tekno45 4 days ago
any stats on your returns so far?
Turkey reported high winrate until Thanksgiving
Falling victim to the classic fallacy. So sad
We call it a "black turkey event", nobody saw it coming.
Not my project, but author said on X:
> Why predict the future when 73.4% of all Polymarkets resolve as No?
That logic doesn't work because not every bet have even payouts. If there's a market for whether a dice rolls 1 or not, the odds might resolve to "no" 83% of the time, but if it only pays you $1.1 per dollar wagered on "no", you're still losing money.