Without seeing the actual differences in the bytecode it will be hard to tell what’s really going on. From my experience with other JITs, I’d expect the situation to be something like:

A) Without the typecast, the compiler can’t prove anything about the type, so it has to assume a fully general type. This creates a very “hard” bytecode sequence in the middle of the hotpath which can’t be inlined or optimised.

B) With the typecast, the compiler can assume the type, and thus only needs to emit type guards (as suggested in this thread). However, I’d expect those type guards to be lifted through the function as far as possible - if possible, the JIT will lift them all the way out of the loop if it can, so they’re only checked once, not on every loop iteration. This enables a much shorter sequence for getting the array length each time around the loop, and ideally avoids doing type/class checks every time.

This would avoid pressuring the branch predictor.

Most JITs have thresholds for “effort” that depend on environment and on how hot a path is measured to be at runtime. The hotter the path, the more effort the JIT will apply to optimising it (usually also expanding the scope of what it tries to optimise). But again, without seeing the assembly code (not just bytecode) of what the three different scenarios produce (unoptimised, optimised-in-test, optimised-in-prod) it would be hard to truly know what’s going on.

At best we can just speculate from experience of what these kinds of compilers do.