by canucktrash669 9 hours ago
Hi Peter, let's play hypotheticals. USMCA (CUSMA) is dead, Trump actually acted on his threat and the US left the treaty.
I assume it means TN visas are dead in six months if the written notice clause is respected.
Is the zombie CUSFTA now out of dormancy? Can we now use the TC visa? If CUSFTA dies as well, what are the other options and how long does it take to process?
I don't CUSFTA would immediately go into effect again. I believe Congress and the President would need to act to revive it.
If this happened would existing TNs still be valid till their end date?
Typically, a benefit once granted (unless improperly granted) can't be taken away.
Just my opinion, but I think USMCA dying is massively unlikely. Already there is some resentment in the Republican base for souring ties with Canada (e.g. bourbon producers, tourism) and I do see Canada-US ties moving in an upward trajectory in the recent months. The USMCA is also used by US citizens to work in Canada. And considering how watered down the H1B changes have been, I don’t think this administration has an appetite for materially pissing off coastal hi-tech. At most we’ll see tightened category adjudications.